Summary of the 4 December 2011 State Duma election results

Parties and alliances	Seat composition			Popular vote	%	± pp swing
	Seats	±	%
United Russia	238	77	52.88%	32,379,135	49.32%	14.98%
Communist Party	92	35	20.46%	12,599,507	19.19%	7.62%
A Just Russia	64	26	14.21%	8,695,522	13.24%	5.50%
Liberal Democratic Party	56	16	12.45%	7,664,570	11.67%	3.53%
Yabloko	0	0	0%	2,252,403	3.43%	1.84%
Patriots of Russia	0	0	0%	639,119	0.97%	0.08%
Right Cause	0	0	0%	392,806	0.60%	new party
Total	450	0	100%	64,623,062	100%
Valid ballot papers				64,623,062	98.43%
Invalid ballot papers				1,033,464	1.57%
Eligible voters				109,237,780	Turnout: 60.10%
Source: Summary table of election results – Central Election Commission

1. Medvedev Responds with Proposals for Systemic Change (NYT Dec 22)
2. How far can the resistance to Vladimir Putin go? (New Yorker Dec 12)
3. Is this a Russian Spring? (BBC Dec 7)

Your assignment–Write, and post a 750-1000 word essay which:

1. Cites all three of the above articles (other resources are available below)
2. Synthesizes the given articles with previous lectures, readings, and discussions
3. Is thesis-driven and evidence-based
4. Attempts to pose an original argument
5. Answers these questions:

• Summarize the 2011 Duma election results. What do these results suggest?
• What are the causes of post-election political discontent in Russia? To what extent are these grievances valid?
• According to Remnick’s piece in the New Yorker, how is the suppression of civil society at the heart of the problem in Russia? Do you tend to agree with his assertions? (If you want more scholarly info on civil society in Russia, see the pieces posted below.)
• Specifically how have Putin, Medvedev, and United Russia responded?
• Conclude by hazarding a response to these questions: Is this the end of an era in Russia? The beginning of the end? Neither?

BRING A PRINT COPY TO CLASS IN ADDITION TO POSTING AS A COMMENT

EXTRA CREDIT: Up to 7 points for offering a substantial (200+ word) and evidence-based refutation of a classmates’ essay. (this is probably the only extra credit for the semester)

“A Balanced Assessment of Russian Civil Society” from Colombia University. More optimisitc than Remnick

Russian Democracy in the Absence of Civil Society. Not so optimistic.

Photo Essay: The Anti-Putin Brigade (Foreign Policy)

Thousands Call on Putin to Go (BBC Dec 25)

Day By Day Summary (Slate Dec 4-12)

Alexei Mukhin, director of the Center for Politial Information think tank, agreed that Putin is increasingly the target but stressed that the opposition continues to lack a comparable leader figure. “Russia without Putin” is the strongest slogan, but it is at the same time the weakest one,“ Mukhin said in an interview. “Because the answer is: ok, Putin, leaves, and then what? Nothing is being offered instead. There is no strong figure that would be able to compete with Putin. It is the weak point, where the pro-government forces are going to strike.”

How does the Kremlin see all this? Check out the state-owned RIA Novosti covers the 2011 protests. Want a hint? December 29th headline: “Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez has blamed the United States for being behind the recent wave of protests in Russia against the outcome of the December 4 parliamentary elections”

Below: Discussion with Anastasia Mirzoyants, the Eurasia Project Manager at Intermedia & ; Jeffrey Mankoff, Associate Director of International Security Studies at Yale University and a visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Anatoly Karlin, student at UC Berkeley, gives some context to the numbers in this op-ed for Al Jazeera. Karlin also runs the blog Supreme Oblivion

Meanwhile, the governing party, United Russia, has had to scale back its expectations for next Sunday’s parliamentary elections, when it is likely to lose the two-thirds majority it has held since 2007.

The announcement, in other words, seems to have had an unintended negative effect, a jarring outcome for a government that has proved itself adept at measuring and manipulating public opinion.